This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Senate

Last week we reported that Michigan former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Young (R) was considering running against three-term US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D).  This week, Justice Young confirmed that he will formally announce his challenge next week.  Lena Epstein, a local Troy businesswoman who was President Trump's Michigan co-chair, is also an announced candidate.

Nevada Democrats have been searching for a candidate to challenge Sen. Dean Heller (R) next year, and have apparently found one.  Reports suggest that freshman US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) will announce her Senate candidacy next week, and begins the race armed with strong support from former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).  Mr. Heller is viewed as the most vulnerable of the eight Senate Republicans standing for election next year.

House

Democrats experienced a bad special election night on June 20th.  Jon Ossoff, the party candidate who set an all-time fundraising record - maybe as high as $33 million when all of the final accounting statistics are released - lost to Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel in a 52-48% margin from a huge turnout of almost 260,000 voters.

Aggregate spending in this race will likely top $50 million, which is almost ten times the high limit previously spent on races of this type.  The Republican turnout apparatus performed well, obviously coming to parity with their Democratic counterparts - an element that the end result and total number of participating individuals proved. 

Once again, we saw most pollsters getting the race wrong.  Looking at the 20 special general election publicly released polls, 13 predicted Ossoff leading, while only four detected a Handel advantage.  Over-emphasizing the Trump-Clinton presidential election, a contest that the Republican nominee won by only 1.5 percentage points in this district, likely skewed the majority of polling samples for this congressional campaign. 

In a result that will likely cause further consternation within Democratic circles, South Carolina Republican former state Representative Ralph Norman defeated Democrat Archie Parnell in the other 6/20 special congressional election, but by only a 51-49% margin from a low turnout of just under 88,000 voters.  The Palmetto State campaign was one that Democratic Party strategists virtually conceded from the outset, funded to only perfunctory levels, and yet the nominee did better than their favored Georgia candidate.  While Ossoff had $23.6 million in campaign receipts through the May 31st Federal Election Commission disclosure period, Mr. Parnell could only manage to raise $763,000, yet the latter man ended with a closer electoral result.

Florida law professor Tim Canova, who challenged veteran Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) in the Democratic primary last year, and spent almost $4 million in doing so, is coming back for a re-match.  Mr. Canova announced this week that he will return to the Wasserman Schultz race after considering a primary challenge to Sen. Bill Nelson.  Despite his heavy spending last year, getting Bernie Sanders' endorsement, and a lot of national attention, Canova fared rather poorly against Wasserman Schultz, losing 57-43%.  After that performance, Canova's 2018 prospects dim considerably.

Governor 

New Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has yet to say whether she will seek a full term next year, but other candidates aren't waiting.  Already five Republicans are in the race, including state Auditor John McMillan and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle.  Now, the Democrats have a candidate, too.  Former state Supreme Court Judge Sue Bell Cobb announced her candidacy, meaning the general election has a chance of becoming competitive depending upon the national climate.  Gov. Ivey's long decision-making process about whether to run could possibly be signaling that she will not seek election to a full term.

The first poll for the New Jersey Governor's general election race was released at the end of last week.  Quinnipiac University went into the field (6/7-12; 1,103 NJ registered voters) to test new nominees Phil Murphy, the Democratic former US Ambassador to Germany and a Wall Street executive, and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno who won the Republican nomination.  The results give Mr. Murphy a huge 55-26% lead, with Republican political leaders doing badly on approval polls.  Outgoing Gov. Chris Christie, for example, scores a record low job approval rating of 15:81% positive to negative.

Harper Polling also released the first post-primary survey for the Virginia Governor's campaign.  According to their June 14-16 poll of 500 VA likely voters, conducted just as the June 13th primary concluded, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and Republican former national party chairman Ed Gillespie are tied at 46% apiece.  This is a surprising poll result since Northam's primary performance was surprisingly good, while Gillespie finished his nomination campaign in disappointing fashion.