Action is beginning to stir in the new Alabama special US Senate election, and it is a virtual certainty that appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) will face a large Republican primary field in the August 15th intra-party contest. 

 

So far, in addition to Sen. Strange, state Rep. Ed Henry, the man who first led the impeachment effort against fellow Republican and now resigned Gov. Robert Bentley, former state Rep. Perry Hooper, who was President Trump's Alabama campaign co-chairman, and Alabama Christian Coalition president Randy Brinson have announced their candidacies. Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore scheduled to make an announcement later today. It is possible that as many as three members of the congressional delegation will also become Senate candidates. The filing deadline is May 17th.

 

If no one receives a majority on August 15th, the top two finishers will advance to a September 26th run-off election. The special general election is scheduled for December 12th. So far, little action is occurring on the Democratic side. The ultimate winner serves the balance of former Sen. Jeff Sessions' term (now US Attorney General) that will end after the 2020 election.

California Democrats have decided to make a play against House Intelligence Committee chairman Devin Nunes (R-Tulare/Fresno County).  Yesterday, Fresno County Assistant District Attorney Andrew Janz (D) announced that he will enter the Central Valley congressional race next year.  It's going to be a tough road to unseat Rep. Nunes because the 22nd District is safely Republican (Trump '16: 52.1; Romney '12: 56.6%).  Mr. Nunes was first elected in 2002, and has averaged 72.5% of the vote over his eight terms in the House.

 

Very little in the way of polling data has come from the at-large Montana special election, but that changed yesterday. The Emerson College Polling Society (4/20-21; 648 MT-AL likely voters) finds Republican businessman Greg Gianforte jumping out to a strong lead over country rock singer Rob Quist (D). Mr. Gianforte, the former Republican gubernatorial nominee who lost to incumbent Steve Bullock (D) 50-46% last November, has a substantial 52-37% advantage over the first-time Democratic candidate. This will be another expensive campaign, as both candidates have raised well over $1.5 million for the election to be decided May 25th.

 

Turning south, the candidates are making their final push before the May 2nd primary election for the South Carolina congressional special vote. The two front-runners appear to be former state Representative and 2006 congressional nominee Ralph Norman (R) and state House President Pro Tempore Tommy Pope (R). Both have the most in the way of campaign resources, and each is advertising heavily. Former Wall Street executive and congressional aide Archie Parnell appears to be a Democratic candidate who may well win the nomination outright. The Republicans will likely advance to a May 16th run-off. 

 

The South Carolina special general election is scheduled for June 20th. Republicans are heavily favored to hold the seat, left vacant when former Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster/Rock Hill) was appointed Director of the Office of Management & Budget.

 

Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy) announced that he will not seek re-election to a sixth term in 2018, and will likely leave Congress before the end of the current session. This will create a vacancy in the congressional delegation for the first time since 1930. Ambiguity surrounds the state's special election process, so this situation will continue to attract political attention as the details unfold. The 3rd District is safely Republican - in fact, Hillary Clinton actually placed third here - so the eventual outcome will not affect the overall House political division.

As expected with Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) ascending to the Governorship after incumbent Robert Bentley (R) was forced to resign, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) closed his exploratory committee and will not enter the Governor's race this year.  He likely would have run if the position had remained open.

 

A major Democratic primary is potentially brewing for the open Colorado Governor's office potentially between two sitting US House members. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) is already in the Governor's race, and this week his congressional colleague, Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder), said he is seriously considering entering the statewide contest. Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler is the most prominent Republican to have declared his candidacy. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

 

The Democrats may not have seen the end of former U.S. Representative, state Senator, and Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich. The gadfly politician is now reportedly laying the groundwork to enter the open Governor's race next year. While not wanting to "discuss politics" during his public appearances, Kucinich is increasing his travel around the state and may well soon officially enter the contest. Mr. Kucinich, currently a Fox News contributor, was last on the ballot in 2012 when he was paired in the Democratic primary with veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), in a race he would eventually lose, 56-40%. Kucinich would join former Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley), state Sen. Joe Schiavoni, who just resigned as the body's Minority Leader, and ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich in the Democratic primary.  Kucinich's chances of capturing the nomination are poor, but the race will become more entertaining with him as a candidate.

 

Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (R) again failed to shut down rumors that he may eschew running for re-election and instead enter the open Governor's campaign. In an interview last week, Sen. Corker confirmed that he has not made a decision about 2018 yet, and is considering the Governor's race. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. House Budget Committee chair Diane Black (R-Gallatin) is also reportedly interested in a potential run for Governor.