This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

President

The victory for Brexit forces in the United Kingdom is a boost to Donald Trump's campaign, at least according to the GOP's presumptive nominee. Mr. Trump's response statement proclaimed that, in November, the American people, too, will have "the chance to re-declare their independence."

Though the media portrays the Trump presidential effort as reeling, the polling numbers aren't detecting the desperate tones emanating from those stories or the trepidations of so many Republican Party leaders. Despite firing campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, which may be more related to Trump's poor financial standing (less than $1.3 million on hand) and less to his national position, Donald Trump is still going toe-to-toe with Hillary Clinton. An average of the last ten national polls suggests a Clinton lead of only 6.5 points, historically standard for a Democrat-Republican presidential contest at this point in the election cycle.

Quinnipiac University released their regular Q-Polls in three critical swing states this week. While Ms. Clinton now claims a 42-36-7% lead over Trump and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, respectively, in all-important Florida, the Republican pulls to within two points in Ohio, and three in Pennsylvania. Both NBC (with the Wall Street Journal) and CBS released polls showing Ms. Clinton holding only a one-point lead over Trump when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included. The Johnson-Weld Libertarian ticket is expected to gain 50-state ballot placement.

A last-ditch move among delegates in an effort to deny Trump the nomination is reportedly gaining steam. But, such an insurrection would have to convince the convention Rules Committee members to virtually trash the Republican primary voters' choice, along with state laws and planks that bind delegate voting.  If the Rules Committee somehow adopted such a change, then the entire convention would have to approve the radical juxtaposition. These are two major hills to climb, and the chances of the Never Trump movement actually succeeding are minimal.

In the meantime, Sen. Bernie Sanders is finally signaling concession to Hillary Clinton.  While he may use the national convention to secure issue concessions, he will not be any further impediment to her being officially nominated.

Senate

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced that he will reverse course and seek re-election. New polling gives Rubio a strong look in the Republican primary, particularly with the principle contenders dropping out to make way for him, but the general election promises to be a hard fought. The new Quinnipiac data, however, posts him to his strongest lead, 47-40%, over Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter). The Florida media is breaking a story now about Murphy is embellishing his resume about his business and educational experience and background.  Murphy is quickly moving to mitigate the damage but this is a developing story.

New polling, also from Quinnipiac University, gives Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) a 49-40% advantage over Democrat Katie McGinty. They see Ohio Sen. Rob Portman (R) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) tied at 42%, while Public Policy Polling finds Tar Heel State Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) still clinging to a small three-point edge (40-37%) over former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D).

House

Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah chose congressional nominees on Tuesday, and all incumbents facing challenges successfully won re-nomination.

Some of the more interesting general election pairings will feature Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) defending his lean Democratic district against state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll (D), and the New York open 3rd District now between state Sen. Jack Martins (R) and former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D), along with Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney (R) opposing Broome County legislator Kim Myers (D) in the central part of the state. In Utah, a competitive re-match campaign is now officially underway between freshman Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) and attorney Doug Owens (D), son of the late former US Rep. Wayne Owens (D-Salt Lake City). The 2014 campaign ended in a 51-46% Love win.

Back in New York, three-time congressional candidate Adriano Espaillat, a NY state Senator, will now succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-Harlem). Espaillat won a crowded Democratic primary and now will become the first non-African American to hold this district since the end of World War II. The Bronx-anchored 13th District is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation.

Two moderately competitive Oklahoma Republican primary challenges unsurprisingly went the incumbents' way. Despite spending more than $700,000 on his campaign to upset Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa), oil executive Tom Atkinson (R) only secured 16% of the vote. In a tighter race, Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville/ Muskogee) claimed a 63-37% victory over former Army Ranger Jarrin Jackson (R). All five Oklahoma congressional incumbents will easily claim another term in November.

Governor

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert won an easy 72-28% Republican primary victory over Overstock, Inc. CEO Jonathan Johnson. The Governor is now a sure bet to win a second full term in November.  

Though four states held primaries early this week, only Utah has a Governor's race on the ballot.