This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
President
The media portrays the Donald Trump presidential campaign as reeling, but the polling numbers aren't detecting the desperate tones emanating from those stories or the trepidation of so many Republican Party leaders. Despite firing campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, which may be more related to Trump's poor financial standing (less than $1.3 million on hand) and less to his national position, Donald Trump is still going toe-to-toe with Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac University released their regular Q-Polls in three critical swing states this week. While Ms. Clinton now claims a 42-36-7% lead over Trump and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, respectively, in all-important Florida, the Republican pulls to within two points in Ohio, and three in Pennsylvania. Earlier in June, Public Policy Polling, in a poll that skew four points Democratic, actually found Trump leading in the Sunshine State by a slight 42-41% margin. Therefore, the Republican's ability to soon return to even footing in Florida appears good.
A move among delegates to attempt a last ditch effort to deny Trump the nomination is reportedly gaining steam. But, such an insurrection would have to convince the convention rules committee members to open the convention, and thus virtually trash the Republican primary voters' support expressions, and state laws and planks that bind delegate voting. If the Rules Committee somehow adopted such a change, then the entire convention would have to vote to approve. These are two very high hills to climb, and the chances of this actually occurring are very minimal.
Senate
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) continues to send signals that he is reversing his decision not to seek re-election. He will have to decide for sure by the end of this week because Florida candidate filing closes Friday afternoon, June 24th. Rubio's polling looks strong in the Republican primary, particularly with the principle contenders dropping out to make way for him, but the general election promises to be a hard fought, toss-up campaign most likely against Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter).
A new Louisiana Senate poll was released this week, conducted for Democratic candidate Caroline Fayard, a former White House aide. The data (GBA Strategies; released 6/15; 500 LA registered voters), like all previous polls have found, see state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) leading the pack with 30% of the vote for the jungle primary that will be conducted concurrently with the November general election. If no one receives an absolute majority, then a December run-off between the top two finishers will occur on the 10th of that month. For an open statewide race that has so far drawn 14 candidates, a post-election run-off appears inevitable.
In second place was Democratic Public Service Commissioner and former gubernatorial candidate Foster Campbell (D) with 15%, followed closely by Fayard's 14 percent. Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) attracts 11% while fellow GOP Rep. John Fleming (R-Minden/Shreveport) commands 9 percent. The surprising support number is Fayard's, the poll sponsor. No other survey has projected her in that strong of a position.
House
In an unsurprising court verdict, Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia) was convicted on all 29 federal corruption charges on Tuesday, meaning he will soon depart Congress. Fattah will be sentenced at another time in the future, but irrespective of when he decides, or is forced, to resign he will be unable to vote. House rules prohibit members convicted of crimes to vote on legislation should they remain in office.
State Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) defeated Fattah in the April Democratic primary, so the Congressman's 22-year federal political career will end at the beginning of next year no matter what is decided for the remainder of 2016.
The Rubio reversal will affect at least two House seats. Rep. David Jolly (R-Pinellas County), in anticipation of the Senator seeking re-election, has already dropped his own Senatorial bid and will file for re-election to his re-drawn House seat. There, he will face party switching former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) in the general election. Early polling suggests a toss-up campaign even though the new 13th has been drawn to elect a Democrat.
On the northern Atlantic coast of Florida, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Daytona) will have to quickly decide whether or not to continue his Senate campaign, attempt to go back to the House, or do nothing in 2016. With six Republicans already running for the open 6th District seat, it may be difficult for DeSantis to return right as filing closes. Rumors suggest he may sit out this election and then declare for what will be an open Florida Attorney General's contest in 2018.
The 9th District recount in the close contest between North Carolina Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) and pastor Mark Harris has ended. Pittenger went into the run-off with a 135 vote lead. Harris was only able to make up two votes, hence he ended the process and Mr. Pittenger finally becomes the official nominee. He now faces businessman Christian Cano (D), but even in a politically weakened state Pittenger will easily have the wherewithal to defeat Cano.