This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix), who many political observers believe would be Sen. Jeff Flake's (R) toughest challenger, seemed to take herself out of Senate race consideration during a Phoenix radio interview last week. The Congresswoman said she is running for re-election but, according to her spokespeople, Ms. Sinema is simply saying such is her current status, which apparently doesn't necessarily close the door on her melding into statewide candidate mode.
Rep. Sinema has been raising large amounts of money, and has almost $3 million cash-on-hand, way more than necessary for re-election in what is now her safe congressional district. Much more will happen here, and this is a race to watch.
Two-term West Virginia Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) announced via video that he will challenge Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin next year. Among the attacks Jenkins launches is that Manchin has supported President Obama. But the Congressman, too, backed Mr. Obama at one time. Mr. Jenkins was a Democrat during the 18 years he served in the legislature. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) is also expected to join the Senate race, so we can expect an active Republican primary and a tough general election in the Mountain State next year.
House
First quarter financial reports are now in the public domain for US House members, and some have been quite prolific on the fundraising trail. The majority member obtaining the most campaign cash is Ohio Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Franklin County) with over $1.37 million raised. Mr. Tiberi is considering entering the US Senate race, and his fundraising activity suggests that he is on course to do so. House Ways & Means Committee chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) was the second highest Republican at $922,000 raised, and potential Missouri US Senate candidate Ann Wagner's (R-St. Louis County) $804,000 receipts total was third.
For the Democrats, Illinois freshman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) is the leading money raiser with $818,000 obtained. New Jersey freshman Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) is second with $751,000 in receipts, followed closely by veteran Georgia Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta) who brought in $736,000.
In what promises to be a hotly contested primary and general election season next year in South Florida, three major Democrats and one Republican announced their open seat candidacies to succeed retiring Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami). State Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez, 2014 nominee Scott Fuhrman, and Miami Beach City Councilwoman Kristen Rosen Gonzalez line up for the Democrats. Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro is the lone Republican announced candidate.
Two new polls were released for the GA-6 special election and while the polling tandem arrived at similar results, their segmentation conclusions were quite different. GBA Strategies (4/29-5/1; 400 GA-6 likely special election voters), conducting a survey for the House Majority PAC that is associated with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), finds Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 50-48%. Landmark Communications, polling for WSB-TV in Atlanta (5/3-5; 611 GA-6 likely special election voters) finds Ms. Handel holding a 49-46% edge. Yet, both pollsters actually find their trailing candidate leading among Independent voters, a rather unusual circumstance. Heading toward the June 20th special general election, this contest remains in the toss-up category
Next week, the South Carolina special election Republican run-off will be decided in the vacant 5th Congressional District. The primary race's fourth place finisher, former South Carolina Republican Party chairman Chad Connelly endorsed resigned state Representative Ralph Norman. The US Chamber of Commerce and neighboring Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-Spartanburg) took to the airwaves to support state House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope. The two candidates fought to a virtual tie in the May 2nd Republican primary. The May 16th run-off winner will face former Wall Street executive Archie Parnell (D) in the special general election.
Governor
Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Eagle/Boise) announced that he will enter the open Governor's race next year. Mr. Labrador, who was born in Puerto Rico and first elected to the House in 2010, joins a Republican primary field that already includes Lt. Gov. Brad Little, former state Sen. Russ Fulcher, and real estate developer and physician Tommy Ahlquist. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to capture the office at the end of 2018. Three-term Gov. Butch Otter (R) is retiring.
Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flushing/Flint), who was thought to be a sure gubernatorial candidate in 2018, instead will remain in the House. Rep. Kildee announced this week that he will not seek the open Governor's office but will run for a fourth term in Congress. Mr. Kildee was viewed as a strong general election candidate, so his deciding not to run statewide is perceived as good news for Republicans
The huge Ohio open gubernatorial field for both parties became even larger this week. Officially joining the race are Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D). Mr. Husted joins a GOP field that includes Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor, Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine, and US Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth). For the Democrats, ex-US Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley), state Senator and former Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, and ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich are all announced candidates. The general election promises to be a highly competitive affair. Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.