This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

President

In the ten latest national polls conducted from June 21-29, Hillary Clinton posts an average 5.7 point lead over Donald Trump. Two of the most recent surveys, however, tell wildly different stories. The new Ipsos/Reuters data gives Clinton a much larger 42-32% lead with 14% in the "neither/other" category. Conversely, Rasmussen Reports finds Trump forging into a national lead, 43-39% with 12% designated as "other". At this point in the election cycle the Democratic candidate is invariably ahead, so it is no surprise that Ms. Clinton enjoys a national advantage. As the campaign matures, the Republican generally closes.

State polling is also being conducted. Both Public Policy Polling and Evolving Strategies (for the Ballotpedia website) surveyed the key states. PPP found closer numbers across the board than did ES. The former finds Trump climbing to within four points of Clinton in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire; two points in Iowa; and leading by four in Arizona. The latter gives Clinton substantial margins in the places where both polled, including a whopping 14 point spread in Pennsylvania.

Polls conducted in the coming days may show movement for Trump in reaction to the FBI recommendation about the Hillary Clinton investigation and the reaction surrounding that decision.

In summary, to reiterate what each candidate must do to win, Clinton needs only carry 80% of the states President Obama won twice. She could give up Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and either Iowa or Nevada and still win the national election. On the other hand, Trump could win with just a three-state switch from the 2012 Obama map: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Senate

The Democracy Corps, in conjunction with the Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund, contracted Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for a major presidential survey that also touched seven key Senate campaign states. Stan Greenberg, one of the GQR principals, is also a Democracy Corps founder.

Using an unusual sampling technique, 2,100 likely general election voters were queried in the seven states with Senate races, divided equally into 300-person segments. The states are: Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The equal divisions, therefore, place New Hampshire, a state with just over one million people on an equivalent footing, for example, with Pennsylvania, which has slightly less than 13 million inhabitants. Therefore, the error factor in the bigger states will be exponentially higher than in those with small populations. That being said, the GQR data produced some surprising numbers for both parties. Concerning the tested Senate campaigns, the data seemed consistent with other previous and recent polling in:

Arizona:

Sen. John McCain (R)   44%

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)    42%

Nevada:

Rep. Joe Heck (R)   46%

Catherine Cortez Masto (D)   41%

New Hampshire:

Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)   47%

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)   46%

In the remaining four states, GQR appears out of step with their fellow pollsters.  In each case, the produced data finds the ballot test inconsistent with conclusions from other survey research firms that have routinely surveyed these states.  Interestingly, the changing results, or potential skew factors, do not favor one particular political party over the other.     

North Carolina:

Deborah Ross (D)   38%

Sen. Richard Burr (R)   36%

Ohio:

Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D)   43%

Sen. Rob Portman (R)   40%

Pennsylvania:

Sen. Pat Toomey (R)   46%

Katie McGinty (D)   38%

Wisconsin:

Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D)   46%

Sen. Ron Johnson (R)   45%

In North Carolina, no other pollster has found former state Rep. Ross holding any sized lead over Sen. Burr.  In comparison, a new Civitas Institute survey (6/23-25; 600 NC registered voters) sees the race heading in a complete opposite direction.  Civitas has Sen. Burr ahead 44-34%. While former Gov. Strickland has so far performed well against Ohio's Sen. Portman, in the most recent surveys other than this latest GQR entry, Portman has either tied Strickland or forged slightly ahead. Most polls also find the Pennsylvania Senate race to be very tight.  But, GQR, along with one other poll (Quinnipiac University's June Q-Poll), surprisingly projects Sen. Toomey with a substantial lead. Finally, in Wisconsin, while virtually all recent polls suggest that ex-Sen. Feingold is beginning to put distance between himself and incumbent Johnson, in some cases even to margins in the double-digit range, the GQR data very surprisingly concludes that this is a one-point race.

Governor

The aforementioned Civitas Institute data also tested the North Carolina gubernatorial campaign.  Their results suggest that Gov. Pat McCrory (R) has completely rebounded from the Charlotte trans-gender bathroom issue.  The prevailing margin has returned to the spread before the controversy broke, with the late data now finding McCrory back out in front, 43-38% over four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D).