President

As President-Elect Trump continues to interview prospective cabinet members during his transition into office, more information is coming into focus relating to the final presidential numbers.

It is becoming clearer that Mr. Trump will secure 306 electoral votes once the canvass process is completed in all states. Michigan remains officially uncalled, but it appears that Trump will carry the state by about three-tenths of one percentage point. The awarding of the final 16 electoral votes to increase his total to 306 EVs will represent the most votes a Republican candidate has obtained since George H.W. Bush earned 426 electoral votes in 1988.  

In seeing the final map unfold, it is evident that after Trump built upon the Republican base by taking Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, the Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin transformed the race from a losing Republican performance into a winning one. Mr. Trump is the first Republican to carry Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1988, and one must research all the way back to 1984 to find the last time a Republican presidential nominee won Wisconsin.

It is now apparent that the 2016 election will set an all-time voter turnout record. While the media reported on Election Night that turnout was projected to be lower than the previous record set in 2008 and worse than the recorded 2012 total, more than 13 million votes received and counted after the election (absentees, provisional ballots, overseas voting, and ballots postmarked on Election Day in California and Washington) mean the final total will approach, and possibly exceed, 135 million voters.  

The previous aggregate vote set in 2008 was 131,426,292. To put these totals in perspective, the 2008 election broke the turnout record of 2004, which featured only 122,339,717 votes. When Ronald Reagan won his landslide re-election in 1984, the aggregate vote cast was just 92.5 million voters.

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton will clinch the popular vote, and probably exceed Mr. Trump's vote total by more than 2 million votes. The two candidates conceded a total of 32 states to their individual opponent and only competed head-to-head in 19 states. Clinton racked up her high popular vote total by netting almost a 5 million vote lead in the voting entities that were a foregone conclusion to support either the Democratic or Republican candidate. In the 19 competitive states, it was Mr. Trump who held the popular vote lead, by almost 3.2 million votes.

Senate

A Trafalgar Group survey (11/14-17; 2,200 LA likely run-off voters) finds Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy staking out a commanding lead over Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell in the open Louisiana US Senate runoff election scheduled for December 10th. According to the Trafalgar data, Kennedy leads Campbell 58-35% when leaners for both candidates are included. 

With little in the way of outside support coming in for either candidate suggests that the Democrats are basically conceding the race to Kennedy. Should the situation remain constant all the way through Election Day, Mr. Kennedy will become the new Congress' 52nd Republican Senator.  

The aforementioned Trafalgar Group survey also tested the two Louisiana congressional run-offs in Districts 3 and 4. Both polls sampled over 600 likely run-off voters that came from the statewide respondent universe commissioned for the Senate race described above.

In the 3rd CD, the open seat vacated by Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) who ran unsuccessfully for US Senate, Public Service Commissioner and former Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle and retired police captain Clay Higgins are locked in a tough battle to be decided December 10th. While Angelle should be in the driver's seat here based upon name identification and political connections, he actually trails former law enforcement officer Higgins, 42-50%.  

As head of the Department of Natural Resources in the Bobby Jindal Administration, Mr. Angelle was involved in a regional public safety issue that drove up his negative ratings. The Public Service Commissioner counters his opponent's data with his own internal OnMessage survey that finds him leading Higgins, 46-42%. Angelle has the clear resource advantage but possesses much higher negative ratings, so this race will go down to the wire. Since both men are Republicans, the GOP wins regardless of who claims the seat in early December.

In the Shreveport based 4th District, open because Rep. John Fleming (R-Minden also failed in his US Senate run, Republican state Rep. Mike Johnson (R) has a clear advantage over Democratic attorney Marshall Jones. According to the Trafalgar poll of this district, Johnson leads, 59-35%. Since 70% of the jungle primary voters chose a Republican candidate and the region has been in GOP hands since 1988, Mr. Johnson is a good bet to win the December 10th runoff election.

In California, Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento) was finally declared the winner in his tight battle against Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones (R).  Down the Golden State coast, the San Diego/Orange County 49th District incumbent Darrell Issa (R-Vista) is positioned to hold his seat, but the laborious counting process continues to drag. The least optimistic forecast for Issa is he defeats retired Marine Colonel Doug Applegate (D) by less than 2,000 votes.