This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
President
Most of the week's presidential electoral news was devoted to Green Party nominee Jill Stein's re-count request action in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. None of the states are close enough for an automatic re-count, and the action is merely designed to fire one last possible political shot at President-Elect Donald Trump. Re-counts can change hundreds of votes in a statewide election, but certainly not thousands or tens of thousands as is the case in each of the three states.
Under federal law, the states must certify their vote counts by December 13th, necessary to having the Electoral College meet on December 19th to cast their official presidential votes. At that time, Donald Trump's election will become final.
Michigan, now being called for Trump, gives him 306 electoral votes as compared to Hillary Clinton's 232. For the re-count effort to succeed, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan would all have to be invalidated.
Ms. Clinton does have a popular vote lead over the President-Elect. Nationally, her advantage is currently 2,109,796 votes. Her margin largely comes from California, where she leads by more than 4 million votes with still almost 800,000 ballots to count under the state's marathon processing procedure. In the 19 states where both candidates actively campaigned, Trump carried the battleground entities by more than 3 million votes.
Once California is fully counted, and all of the late votes are tabulated, the national presidential turnout could reach 135 million, which is an all-time record. The previous high was set in 2008 (Barack Obama vs. John McCain), when 131,426,292 people voted.
Senate
With the Louisiana Senate election approaching on December 10th, a Trafalgar Group survey (11/14-17; 2,200 LA likely run-off voters) that we reported upon last week is the only data released into the public domain to date. The fact that slight attention is being paid to this race and little in the way of outside spending coming from the national party committees and independent organizations favors Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy. The fact that the Democratic committees are not making a major effort for their candidate, Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, likely confirms the Trafalgar data that posted Kennedy to a 58-35% advantage.
Two Democratic Senators have already announced that they will seek re-election in 2018. Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), commonly viewed as one of the most vulnerable 2018 in-cycle members, announced that she will run for a third term. Likewise, for Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), who confirms that he, too, will ask the voters of his state to return him for a third six-year stint.
Conversely, New Mexico Sen. Tom Udall (D), who has openly been considering a run for Governor, says he will announce a decision about running by the end of this year. Sen. Udall is not in-cycle in 2018. Therefore, he can seek the state's open Governor's office and not risk his Senate seat. Should he enter the race and win, Mr. Udall would be able to appoint his own successor.
House
The final House race prior to the two Louisiana districts being decided on December 10th has been decided. In southern California, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista) has won re-election. The Congressman has just over a 2,300 vote lead with only a few more ballots to count. Therefore, his 50.4 percentage will hold to give him a close re-election victory. Mr. Issa was originally elected to this San Diego/Orange County congressional district in 2000. Immediately after the election being called, Democratic nominee Doug Applegate, a retired Marine Colonel, announced that he will run again in 2018.
President-Elect Trump nominating Reps. Mike Pompeo (R-KS-4) and Tom Price (R-GA-6) for CIA Director and Secretary of Health of Human Services, respectively, mean that special congressional elections will be called in Wichita and the northern Atlanta suburban area. The Governors of the two states will schedule the elections after the seats officially become vacant in accordance with Kansas or Georgia election law.
The Price selection means there will be a battle to replace him as chairman of the House Budget Committee. The three contenders, in a Republican Steering Committee decision that will be made at the end of this week, are Reps. Tom McClintock (R-CA-4), Todd Rokita (R-IN-4), and Diane Black (R-TN-6).
The important Energy & Commerce Committee chairmanship will also be decided this week. Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL-15) and Greg Walden (R-OR-2) are the principal contenders.
Governor
President-Elect Trump's choice of South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) as US Ambassador to the United Nations will mean the state will have a new chief executive. Upon confirmation, Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) will ascend to the Governor's office and serve the final two years of the current term. He would be eligible to run for a full term in his own right in 2018, and will obviously be the front runner in the Republican primary, which is generally tantamount to winning the position in the general election.