This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
West Virginia Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) confirms that he is considering launching a 2018 Senate challenge to Sen. Joe Manchin (D). Though the state is now solidly Republican, Sen. Manchin remains popular and will be difficult to unseat. Even though the Mountain State performed as Donald Trump's second strongest state in the nation, Democratic businessman Jim Justice held the open Governor's race in the same election, winning a seven-point victory. Attorney General Tim Morrisey (R), who scored his own ten-point re-election win in November, is also a potential US Senate candidate.
Though national radio talk show host Laura Ingraham, who was a strong Donald Trump supporter in the recent past election, resides in Washington, DC, she is now being mentioned as a possible challenger to Virginia Senator and former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Kaine (D) in 2018. She would certainly have plenty of time to establish residency in Virginia - her offices are in Arlington, VA, for example - and she now confirming at least a passing interest in making the jump into elective politics. It is much too early to suggest that she will be a candidate, but it is unlikely the Republicans will give Sen. Kaine a free ride in the next election whether or not Ingraham decides to run. Reps. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) and Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) are both frequently mentioned as potential candidates.
House
Former Montana gubernatorial Republican nominee Greg Gianforte, a businessman who held Gov. Steve Bullock (D) to a 50-46% re-election victory in November, is reportedly making major progress toward locking up convention delegate support for the upcoming at-large special election.
Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is currently going through the confirmation process to become Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. As soon as the confirmation vote is held, Mr. Zinke will resign his congressional position and Gov. Bullock will schedule a special election within a 100-day period. Both parties will nominate in convention, so the voters will only go to the polls one time. Considering the progress Gianforte is making with the party delegates and leadership, along with earning support from Sen. Steve Daines (R), the defeated gubernatorial nominee appears to have jumped out to an early lead in the shortened process to succeed Secretary-Designate Zinke.
Though Democrats have only a long shot chance of taking the GA-6 special election when incumbent Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell) is confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary, the party leadership appears to be winnowing the field in order to unite behind one candidate. Four Democrats have announced their candidacies, but one is yielding to another candidate.
Attorney Josh McLaurin is dropping out of the 6th District race in order to unite behind a front-runner candidate. Mr. McLaurin says he believes that individual is investigative filmmaker Jon Ossoff, a former staff member to US Reps. John Lewis (D-Atlanta) and Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia). Former state legislators Ron Slotin and Sally Harrell remain in the race, however. The Democrats' hope lies in coalescing behind one candidate in the jungle primary, thereby virtually guaranteeing them a slot in the special general election.
A Remington Research poll in the soon-to-be-called South Carolina special congressional election gives one potential candidate a large lead in the Republican primary, though the individual is ostensibly interested in another race.
State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope (R) has 25% of the 5th District electorate support, according to the RR data (1/7-8; 778 SC-5 likely voters). Following are state Rep. Ralph Norman, the only officially announced candidate, and ex-state Republican Party chairman Chad Connelly, both with 9% backing, while state Rep. Gary Simrill follows with six percent. Mr. Pope has interest in running for Governor, but it is unlikely that Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) will have much Republican opposition once he ascends to the position after incumbent Nikki Haley (R) is confirmed as US Ambassador to the United Nations.
Governor
Nevada Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson (R) ruled himself out of the open 2018 Governor's race, opting to instead seek re-election. Earlier, US Sen. Dean Heller (R) also announced that he will run for a second term in the Senate rather than move to the Governor's campaign. This seemingly opens the door for Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R), who is beginning to amass a large campaign war chest and is obviously making moves to run statewide, most probably for Governor rather than re-election. Nevada politics runs close, so we can expect a hotly contested race in 2018. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey (1/5-10; 625 VA registered voters) finds former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie jumping out to an early lead over Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), 44-41%. The other tested Republican candidate, Prince William County Board chairman Corey Stewart, trails Northam 45-38%. If ex-Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) became the Democratic nominee, he would trail Gillespie by an even larger margin, 36-45%, while the former Congressman would top Mr. Stewart, 40-38%. The Virginia gubernatorial election will be held in 2017. Gov. Terry McAuliffe is ineligible to seek a second term.