This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.
Senate
Key Missouri former elected officials, including ex-US Senator John Danforth (R) and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), signed an open letter to Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) encouraging him to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) next year. So far, the newly elected AG is saying he will not run, but his latest statement about remaining in his current position is a bit weaker than what he previously professed. Meanwhile, Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) appears to be actively gearing up to soon announce for the Senate. She has reportedly raised $804,000 for the first quarter of 2017, and has more than $2.8 million in her federal campaign account.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), who faces a competitive re-election battle in 2018, drew his first official opponent this week. State Sen. Albert Olszewski (R-Kalispell) announced that he will compete for the Republican nomination for the state's in-cycle US Senate seat. Sen. Olszewski was elected in 2016, after serving one term in the state House of Representatives. He will not have to risk his Senate seat to run statewide in 2018.
Erie area Rep. Mike Kelly (R) confirms that he is considering launching a challenge against Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). Two Republican state Representatives, Rick Saccone (R-Allegheny County) and Jim Christiana (R-Beaver County), are announced US Senate candidates, but Rep. Kelly would be able to bring strong financial resources to the campaign. Mr. Kelly also says he is looking at the Governor's race, but it appears that launching a Senate campaign is more likely.
House
Kansas state Treasurer Ron Estes (R) won the special election to succeed CIA Director Mike Pompeo in the Wichita-anchored congressional district. Mr. Estes completed his 53-46% victory on April 11th, which Democrats and media pundits say is a Republican under-performance. Though this number is below President Trump's strong 60-33% showing last November, the Estes result is relatively in line with other Republicans when they first won the seat. Former Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Wichita) scored a 53% win in 1994 when he initially came to Congress, and Mr. Pompeo's original vote percentage was 59% when he won for the first time in 2010.
Turnout was strong for a special election. More than 120,000 voters participated in the election, some 30% of the registered voters total. In comparison, only 28,000 individuals voted in the April 4th California 34 special election held in Los Angeles.
The House partisan division is now 238R-193D, with four vacancies remaining to be filled. The next special election occurs on Tuesday in Georgia. There, Democrat Jon Ossoff is expected to finish first, and advance to a June 20th run-off election with a Republican candidate. Several Republicans still have a chance to qualify for the next vote.
Now that the first special election has concluded, another may soon be on the horizon. Keystone State Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) is apparently on President Trump's short list to become the Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, the position commonly known as the "Drug Czar". Should Mr. Marino be appointed, his northeastern Pennsylvania congressional district would be subject to yet another special election.
Governor
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) finally acknowledged the extra-marital affair that has plagued his effectiveness for the better part of a year. In order to avoid what appeared to be a sure impeachment vote, Gov. Bentley resigned his office, agreed never to run for political office again, and pled guilty to two campaign finance misdemeanors. He will forfeit more than $36,000 in campaign funds to the state, and perform 100 hours of community service as part of the agreement.
Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) ascended to the Governorship, thus throwing state politics into chaos. A number of statewide officials were looking to run for the open Governor's position - Bentley was ineligible to run for a third term - but most are now saying they will re-assess their own options once Gov. Ivey makes her future political plans known. On the other hand, Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan (R) says he still plans to run for Governor next year.
The open Colorado Governor's race is officially underway. At the beginning of this week, Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) announced, as expected, that he will enter the statewide contest next year. He joins five other Democrats who have already declared, including former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, and ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston. The latter reports raising more than $650,000 for the race. Republican District Attorney (Arapahoe County) George Brauchler is the most prominent candidate on the GOP side. The Colorado contest will be highly competitive. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
President Trump has named Tennessee state Sen. Mark Green (R) as US Army Secretary. Upon confirmation, Mr. Green, an announced Volunteer State gubernatorial candidate, will resign from the state Senate and withdraw from the Governor's race. Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is term-limited, so this, too, will be a hotly contested open Governor's campaign.
Quinnipiac University released its latest Virginia Governor's poll (4/6-10; 1,115 VA registered voters; 483 self-identified Democrats; 435 self-identified Republicans) provides good news for the Democrats, particularly former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville). The poll does appear slightly skewed in the Democrats' favor, with a sample of 34% Democratic, 31% Independent, and 24% Republican, which is out of balance with the actual established voting trends in the most recent elections.
In terms of the ballot test results, Mr. Perriello leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, 25-20%, in their nomination battle. The establishment-backed Northam, however, has scored major points on the fundraising circuit, obtaining $1.5 million in the quarter and holding a reported $3.3 million in his campaign account.
For the Republicans, ex-Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie appears secure with a lead over his two GOP primary opponents, Prince William County Board chairman Corey Stewart, and Virginia Beach state Sen. Frank Wagner.
But, in the pairing with the Democrats, Gillespie now trails by double-digits to both Perriello and Northam. The Lt. Governor maintains a 44-33% advantage over Gillespie, while Mr. Perriello an even larger 46-33% spread. These are by far the worst numbers the Gillespie camp has seen in this election, and while the polling skew accounts for some of it, the spread is large enough to determine that the Democrats hold a clear edge as we pull to within two months of the June 13th primary, which will mark the official beginning of the 2017 general election campaign.