Candidates continue to come forward in the Alabama special US Senate election and, as predicted, appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) will face a large Republican primary field in the August 15th intra-party contest. 

 

As reported last week, state Rep. Ed Henry, former state Rep. Perry Hooper Jr., Alabama Christian Coalition president Randy Brinson, and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore all have announced their candidacies. While US Reps. Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville) and Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) will not run statewide, northern Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) may soon enter the race. The filing deadline is May 17th. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a September 26th run-off election will occur. The special general is scheduled for December 12th.

 

We now see our first poll in what could be an impending GOP Senate primary in Missouri. Kansas City-based pollster Remington Research (4/28-29; 915 likely MO Republican primary voters; via Interactive Voice Response system), finds Attorney General Josh Hawley leading Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) by a 30-14% split, with two others in single digits. Mr. Hawley has said he intends to fulfill the duties of the position to which he was just elected in November, thus he is unlikely to run for the Senate. Rep. Wagner is a probable candidate, however. The eventual Republican nominee faces vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill (D).

 

San Antonio Rep. Joaquin Castro (D), who said he would take several more weeks to decide if he would challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R), now says he will not. In an email to supporters, Rep. Castro indicated he intends to seek a fourth term in the House. This more than likely gives Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-El Paso) a clear path to the Democratic nomination. The Congressman announced last month that he would challenge Sen. Cruz.  

Veteran Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami), the first Cuban American to serve in the US House when originally elected in a 1989 special election and now dean of the Sunshine State congressional delegation, announced that she will retire at the end of this Congress. The South Florida district is the country's strongest Hillary Clinton CD (19 point spread) that also elected a Republican to the House. Still, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen scored a ten-point win last November even with President Trump drawing less than 40% of the vote. As an open seat, this is clearly be a top Democratic conversion target.

 

The first post-primary special election poll for the expensive GA-6 contest was conducted and just released. Democratic pollster Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (4/23-26; 590 GA-6 likely special election voters) surveyed the special general between first place finisher Jon Ossoff (D) and former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R). Though Ossoff claimed 48% in the jungle primary against 17 other candidates, falling just short of outright victory, this new survey research finds him in a virtual tie with Handel, the leading Republican who took only 20% in the jungle primary. According to the data, Ossoff clings to a 48-47% lead, again underscoring that party turnout will be the determining factor in this election. The special general is scheduled for June 20th.

 

In South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, voters went to the polls this week to begin their special election nomination process. As expected, more than twice as many people voted in the Republican primary than Democratic; the GOP will feature a special run-off election in two weeks; while Democrats nominated a candidate outright. 

 

Consistent with predictions, former state Representative and 2006 congressional nominee Ralph Norman (R) and state House President Pro Tempore Tommy Pope (R) advanced to a run-off on May 16th, with the two virtually tied. Mr. Pope placed first by just 112 votes over Mr. Norman, and carried their joint home of York County, the district's largest population entity, by just 137 votes. Former Wall Street executive and congressional aide Archie Parnell, also as forecast, easily claimed the Democratic nomination outright, taking 71% in his primary. The special general election will be June 20th.  

 

Virginia Democrats appear in disarray over who will challenge Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-McLean) next year. After party leaders recruited state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D) into the race, after trying without success for the 2016 campaign, the state's First Lady, Dorothy McAuliffe, is indicating that she, too, is seriously considering entering the congressional campaign. 

 

Obviously caught by surprise, Reps. Donald McEachin (D-Henrico) and Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) immediately announced their endorsements of Wexton. The two figured prominently in her recruitment.  In addition to Wexton, three other Democrats had previously announced their candidacies. The district will again be targeted because President Trump lost the seat by ten full percentage points, even with Comstock winning a highly expensive and hard fought re-election battle.

Former one-term Florida Congresswoman Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) announced her gubernatorial campaign this week. Ms. Graham, the daughter of former US Senator and Governor Bob Graham (D), was a victim of the mid-decade, court-ordered redistricting that drastically changed the north Florida congressional districts. Rather than face certain defeat, the Congresswoman did not seek re-election but promised at the time of her retirement announcement to reappear as a participant in the 2018 open Governor's race.

 

Already in the Democratic primary are Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and real estate executive Chris King. Agriculture Commissioner and former US Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Lakeland), who will soon announce his own gubernatorial candidacy, is the early favorite.

 

Television executive Jeff Apodaca (D), whose father, Jerry Apodaca, served as New Mexico's Governor in the mid to late 70s, announced he will enter the open gubernatorial race in the Land of Enchantment next year. Already in the Democratic race is US Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque). The primaries in both parties promise to be spirited affairs. Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.