This article originally appeared on BIPAC's blog. Written by BIPAC Political Analyst Jim Ellis.

Senate

County District Judge Russell Fagg (R) is retiring from the bench later this year and looks to be organizing a potential run against Sen. Jon Tester (D). Republicans are searching for a stronger candidate than state Sen. Al Olszewski and businessman Troy Downing, and Judge Fagg appears to have the potential of becoming a more viable contender. Though Sen. Tester's vote may be more liberal than the average Montanan, his statewide organization and personal connection with voters is going to make him very difficult to beat in the next election. The Senator will be seeking a third term in 2018.

The first Nevada Senate poll featuring Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) challenging first term Sen. Dean Heller (R) was released this week. Public Policy Polling, surveying for Planned Parenthood (6/23-25; 648 NV registered voters), not surprisingly found a dead heat between the two candidates in what is becoming one of the few truly swing states within the American electorate. Before slanted push questions about the healthcare bill and Planned Parenthood's image were posed, the ballot test gave Rep. Rosen a slight 42-41% edge over Sen. Heller. The latter is clearly the most vulnerable Republican standing for re-election, and we can count on a tight finish next year in the Silver State.

Reports emanating from people close to North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) say her re-election decision originally planned for summer is now likely to unfold "months" from now. At-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) is also non-committal about launching a race against the first-term Senator.

House

Arizona former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff), who lost 54-41% to incumbent John McCain (R) in the 2016 Senate race, has officially moved to Tucson. This week, she filed an exploratory committee to test the waters against two-term Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson). Six other Democrats are already in the 2nd District race, including 2016 nominee Matt Heinz and former state Rep. Bruce Wheeler, so Ms. Kirkpatrick must traverse a competitive primary before earning a chance to oppose Rep. McSally should she choose to become a candidate.

Michael Eggman, the two-time Democratic challenger to northern California Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock/Modesto), announced this week that he will not make a third attempt. Five Democrats have already come forward in this politically marginal district, including former Riverbank City Councilwoman Dotty Nygard and venture capitalist Josh Harder. Rep. Denham defeated Mr. Eggman with 52 and 56% of the vote in 2016 and '14, respectively.

Kansas State Senate President Susan Wagle (R) is apparently not ruling out challenging new Congressman Ron Estes (R-Wichita) in the Republican primary next year. Sen. Wagle confirmed she is not ruling out such an effort, nor did she close the door on entering the open Governor's race.

Former one-term Nebraska Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Omaha) announced that he will seek a re-match with the man who unseated him last fall, freshman Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion). The Omaha congressional seat is marginal, and the electorate has defeated incumbents in the last two general elections. This will clearly be a race to watch.

New York State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi (D), who is more centrist than most NY Democratic candidates, announced that he will enter the congressional primary next year. He hopes to oppose freshman Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-New Hartford) who won a three-way contest last November with 44% of the vote. Former Rep. Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld) hinted last week that he is considering a political comeback attempt, but would not run under a major party banner. College professor Patrick Madden is so far the only other Democrat in the race.

Archie Parnell (D), who held newly elected Rep. Ralph Norman (R) to a scant 51-48% special election last week, says he hasn't decided whether to enter the regular 2018 campaign. Mr. Parnell exceeded electoral expectations, but a regular election turnout model should give Rep. Norman a definitive boost. The special election drew less than 88,000 voters, about half of what we will see next year.

Governor

Connecticut state Sen. Ted Kennedy Jr. (D-Branford), who earlier in the year said he was 90% sure that he would enter the open race for Governor, now says he will not run. Six other Democrats, including State Comptroller Kevin Lembo, and two mayors are already in the race. Nine Republicans have become candidates. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is not seeking a third term.

Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett became the first Republican to announce a primary challenge to new Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds. Mr. Corbett plans to run a contrast campaign, saying there is a "lack of leadership" in state government. Gov. Reynolds, the state's former Lt. Governor, is filling the final portion of Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) term. The longest-serving Governor in American history resigned in May to accept his appointment as US Ambassador to China in the Trump Administration. Seven Democrats have already announced. A competitive campaign from start to finish is expected here.

The first candidate came forward in the open Nevada Governor's race at the end of last week. Democratic Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, fresh from his re-election victory in November, officially declared his intentions to run for the state's top office. Should he capture the Democratic nomination, Mr. Sisolak will likely face Attorney General Adam Laxalt who is the favorite on the Republican side. The first polling, released in May, gave Mr. Laxalt a decided lead over Mr. Sisolak. Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is not eligible to seek a third term.